https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/climate/climate-change-economy.html
"WASHINGTON — Rising temperatures are likely to reduce global wealth
significantly by 2050, as crop yields fall, disease spreads and rising seas
consume coastal cities, a major insurance company warned Thursday, highlighting
the consequences if the world fails to quickly slow the use of fossil fuels.
The effects of climate change can be expected to shave 11 percent to 14 percent
off global economic output by 2050 compared with growth levels without climate
change, according to a report from Swiss Re, one of the world’s largest
providers of insurance to other insurance companies. That amounts to as much as
$23 trillion in reduced annual global economic output worldwide as a result of
climate change.
Some Asian nations could have one-third less wealth than would otherwise be the
case, the company said. “Our analysis shows the potential costs that economies
could face should governments fail to act more decisively on climate,” said
Patrick Saner, who is in charge of global macroeconomic forecasts for Swiss Re.
The projections come as world leaders gather Thursday and Friday for a virtual
climate summit in Washington hosted by President Biden, who has urged countries
to do more to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Mr. Biden is expected to
pledge to cut the United States’ emissions by about half by 2030.
The new report makes clear the stakes involved in those negotiations."
I think these are massive underestimates because they assume an awful lot of
“business as usual” and don’t really factor in cascading failures. For risk
managers, they sure seem to be minimising the truly catastrophic potential
downside risks. A few failed states and regional (or worse, global) wars could
blow out those figures by orders of magnitude.
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
