<
https://theconversation.com/chinas-demand-for-seaborne-coal-is-set-to-drop-fast-and-far-australia-should-take-note-181552>
"China’s plans to boost energy security and cut carbon emissions mean this
year’s sudden boom for Australian coal exporters is just a blip.
Our new research explores the double pressures of China’s plans to bolster
energy security in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine while aiming to
hit net zero within 40 years.
Our model suggests that if China sticks to its current climate pledges, thermal
coal imports will drop by a quarter within three years from 210 megatonnes (Mt)
in 2019 to 155Mt by 2025. That means Australian exports could fall by 20% by
2025, while Australian coking coal exports could fall even more. This is in
stark contrast to predictions of stable demand or even continued growth by the
Australian government.
How could this happen so quickly, when coal prices have roughly tripled
compared to the last decade? In short, better infrastructure. China has
invested in major rail projects, including a direct rail line to a major coking
coal mine in Mongolia, as well as increasing use in scrap steel."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
