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https://theconversation.com/early-warnings-for-floods-in-south-africa-engineering-for-future-climate-change-181556>
"Severe weather, rain and flooding are at the forefront of the minds of many
South Africans, especially those in KwaZulu-Natal. Early last week (11-12 April
2022), the province’s coast received heavy rain, with some areas recording over
300mm in 24 hours. This is about a third of the annual rainfall in
KwaZulu-Natal.
The rain was caused by a strong cut-off low weather system off the east coast
of southern Africa. Cut-off lows frequently occur off this coast during the
autumn months. These systems can cause localised flooding as well as large wave
events.
The port city of Durban (in the municipality of eThekwini) has experienced
flooding events almost every year since 2016. Storms responsible for these
floods typically dropped 100mm-150mm of rain in 24 hours, according to the
eThekwini data portal.
Between 11-12 April 2022, a storm system dropped even more rain than that. It
caused devastating floods, landslides, and loss of life. It is natural to ask
whether the recent floods in the area will occur more often within the context
of climate change or whether they were simply freak events. It is not possible
to state conclusively that this storm was a result of climate change. However,
scientists believe these types of intense weather systems will occur more
frequently in the future.
In a world rife with misinformation, support a newsroom making a difference
Perhaps more pertinent is the question: did anyone see this coming? There isn’t
a simple answer. It’s something that has been challenging scientists and
engineers around the world for decades. For example scientists like myself have
been trying to apply the principles of fluid mechanics to address these types
of questions.
This is important because if we can predict the occurrence of an event, we can
arm disaster management teams with life-saving information."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
