https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-15262-y
"There is an imperative for fire agencies to quantify the potential for
prescribed burning to mitigate risk to life, property and environmental values
while facing changing climates. The 2019–2020 Black Summer fires in eastern
Australia raised questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning in
mitigating risk under unprecedented fire conditions. We performed a simulation
experiment to test the effects of different rates of prescribed burning
treatment on risks posed by wildfire to life, property and infrastructure. In
four forested case study landscapes, we found that the risks posed by wildfire
were substantially higher under the fire weather conditions of the 2019–2020
season, compared to the full range of long-term historic weather conditions.
For area burnt and house loss, the 2019–2020 conditions resulted in more than a
doubling of residual risk across the four landscapes, regardless of treatment
rate (mean increase of 230%, range 164–360%). Fire managers must prepare for a
higher level of residual risk as climate change increases the likelihood of
similar or even more dangerous fire seasons."
Via Christoph S.
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
