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https://theconversation.com/with-most-mandatory-public-health-measures-gone-is-new-zealand-well-prepared-for-the-next-covid-wave-190528>
"New Zealand’s decision this week to end most mandatory public health measures
aimed at preventing COVID transmission received a mixed response. Our modelling
suggests it was time to wind back restrictions, but some measures were perhaps
scrapped prematurely.
The only requirements still in place are for people who test positive to
isolate for seven days and for masks to be worn when visiting healthcare
facilities and aged-care homes. Household contacts should test daily and mask
up, but are not required to isolate unless they test positive.
We used our recent model to look at the effect of a 10-20% increase in
transmission that could plausibly result from reduced mask wearing and less
cautious behaviour. We found this could potentially bump up case numbers in the
short term, though much less than the recent BA.5 wave.
The modelling shows that after a few months new infections settle at a level
only 2-4% higher than without the changes. In other words, the 10-20% increase
in transmission led to a much smaller increase in new infections because it
ultimately also raised levels of immunity in the population.
This is not a good thing though: infections are always best avoided and
immunity should not be a goal in itself.
It is, however, an important effect to take into account and international
observations bear this out. Many countries have removed mask mandates this year
and there are no obvious signs this has caused a significant rise in illness or
deaths."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
