https://www.futurity.org/ukraine-war-russia-politics-2810502-2/
"The hasty withdrawal of Russian troops from northeastern Ukraine is by no
means signaling the last stretch of the war, says Hein Goemans.
Goemans, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester, is an
expert on international conflicts—on how they begin and how they may end.
“Most people believe that if one side wins a battle or a campaign, peace
becomes more likely,” says Goemans, author of
War and Punishment: The Causes
of War Termination and the First World War (Princeton University Press, 2000)
and coauthor of
Leaders and International Conflict (Cambridge University
Press, 2011).
But that’s not true. “If I fight a war with you and do poorly—but expected to
do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for me—then I’m not
going to change my war aims. Only if something unexpected happens, would I
change my expectations and my strategy.”
Likewise, Putin’s sham referenda in occupied territories and his calls for a
cease-fire do not make peace now any more likely, Goemans says. “He’ll propose
a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will
propose a deal that he cannot accept. That’s for domestic consumption in
Russia; he’s just posturing.”
Here, Goemans discusses “massive consequences” for Europe, worst-case
scenarios, the outlook for peace, and what makes Putin so dangerous"
Via Rixty Dixet.
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
