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https://theconversation.com/life-expectancy-improves-in-some-countries-after-big-drops-in-2020-but-us-and-others-see-further-falls-191304>
"The COVID pandemic triggered an unprecedented rise in deaths around the world,
leading to falls in life expectancy. In research last year, we found that 2020
saw significant life expectancy losses, including more than two years in the US
and one year in England and Wales.
In a new study published in
Nature Human Behaviour, we have now shown that,
in 2021, life expectancy rebounded somewhat in most western European countries
while eastern Europe and the US witnessed additional losses. However, only
Norway beat its pre-pandemic life expectancy in 2021, and everywhere is worse
off than it would likely have been without the pandemic.
We knew the outlook for 2021 was mixed, with the excitement of vaccine rollouts
tempered by huge numbers of infections caused by a series of new and highly
transmissible variants.
To assess the impact of these changes on life expectancy, our research team at
the University of Oxford’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and the
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research gathered data from 29 mostly
European countries (plus Chile and the US).
Life expectancy is a measure we use to summarise the mortality pattern of a
country in a given year. It’s calculated based on deaths from all causes, so it
doesn’t depend on the accuracy of recording COVID deaths, and can give us a
broader picture of how the pandemic affected mortality.
Life expectancy is not a prediction of the lifespan of a baby born today.
Rather, it’s the number of years someone born today could expect to live, if
they lived their whole life with the mortality rates of the current year (or
2021 in the case of our research). So it’s a snapshot of current mortality
conditions, if they were to continue without any improvements or deterioration.
Demographers find life expectancy a very useful summary measure of population
mortality because it’s comparable across countries and over time. Large swings
upwards or downwards can tell us something dramatic has changed, as it has with
COVID. The size of these drops allows us to compare mortality shocks across
time and place."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
