<
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/08/russiaswar-is-ukraine-winter-colder-russian-troops>
"Heavy rains in Ukraine are bringing the twice yearly rasputitsa, when mud
breaks up unpaved tracks and makes many almost impassable; even tanks may be
confined to the roads. Vehicle routes become predictable, and more easily
targeted by artillery or drone and airstrikes. Snow and ice will follow in
December, causing their own problems. Lack of foliage in wooded areas makes
concealment from ubiquitous drones difficult, but by the same token, increased
cloud cover will impede much aerial reconnaissance. Supplies and ammunition –
including artillery shells – will take longer to arrive and will come in
smaller quantities.
In short, winter means everything slows down. The Ukrainian style of war,
relying on speed and surprise, will lose much of its tempo. And above all,
soldiers, like everyone else, focus on keeping warm. General Winter is coming.
Russian troops, under new leadership, will attempt to freeze the lines in place
and hold them. The Ukrainians, although they have surprised us before, will
probably be unable to execute the kind of dashing operations we saw over the
last eight months.
Other changes are afoot. Russia’s new unified command structures, under the
recently appointed General Sergei Surovikin, seem, at the very least, to have
rationalised their chaotic organisation and operations. There are signs of a
more coherent approach. This can be seen in Kyiv, with the missile strikes in
early October. Earlier in the conflict, Russia’s unfocused attacks – often
hitting targets in cities seemingly at random – depleted Russia’s limited
arsenal of precision missiles and gained them no strategic or operational
advantage.
Now Russia is using Iranian-made – and likely operated – drones against
civilian infrastructure, particularly Ukrainian electricity and water supply
systems. This is known as countervalue targeting, or hitting important
non-military assets. It is a ruthless approach but it is a coherent one, as it
aims to reduce an enemy’s will to fight. Unfortunately for Russia, while this
works well in theory, history demonstrates that such an approach tends to
increase an enemy’s determination for the simple human reason that in war,
people will hold their enemies accountable for the miseries they cause."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
