<
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/15/frequency-and-intensity-of-tropical-cyclones-on-australias-east-coast-set-to-worsen-study-predicts>
"Severe tropical cyclones are predicted to maintain intensity longer, dump more
rain and shift polewards as the climate heats up, potentially putting millions
more Australians in harm’s way, according to new research.
Scientists from IAG, Australia’s largest insurer, and the US National Center
for Atmospheric Research predict “rapidly increasing risks” of damaging winds
and major flooding from cyclones by the century’s end. South-east Queensland is
among the regions under threat, the paper in the Weather and Climate Extremes
journal found.
IAG’s Mark Leplastrier, an atmospheric scientist and one of the report’s
authors, said the work simulated more than 25,000 years to overcome the
limitations of a relatively short period of accurate cyclone readings.
It found the declining trend in the number of cyclones observed in the
south-west Pacific in recent decades may be due to natural variability and
could reverse.
“It’s showing that frequency may not back off, and the way [cyclone] intensity
is shifting is really alarming,” Leplastrier said.
“We’ll shift to the more extreme stuff, both from wind and rain,” he said.
“Those acting together can actually cause so much more damage.”
Australia’s cyclone season officially runs from November to April. The Bureau
of Meteorology has forecast a 73% chance that more than the expected 11
tropical tempests will hit the Australian region this season."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
