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https://theconversation.com/as-new-south-wales-reels-many-are-asking-why-its-flooding-in-places-where-its-never-flooded-before-190912>
"On Monday, residents of Eugowra in New South Wales had to flee for their
lives. They had only minutes to get to higher ground – or their rooftops – to
escape what’s been dubbed an “inland tsunami” of water. This week, many other
towns across western NSW faced renewed floods. For many people affected, the
real shock is how unexpected it was – and how fast the water came. Their houses
and land had never flooded, as far as they knew. What had changed?
This is an important question with a number of answers. When we make these
assessments, we’re drawing on two sources: local knowledge and, increasingly,
what flood maps tell us.
While tremendously useful, local knowledge has limits. Human memory is fallible
and written records do not stretch back far. Flood maps also have constraints.
That’s because floods can differ greatly depending on where the rain falls, at
what intensity, and over what period of time. We will also have to redraw flood
maps more often, as climate change brings more extreme weather. As climate
change progresses, the atmosphere can hold more water. This supercharges
atmospheric rivers – huge torrents of water carried above our heads.
The result? You might think you’re safe if you drew on local knowledge and
flood maps when choosing where to live. The reality is there always have been
gaps in our knowledge, and homes built on floodplains once thought safe may not
be any more.
This doesn’t mean we should ignore credible sources of information. But it does
mean we have to remember every information source has some uncertainty."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
