"As the planet warms, a key concern in international climate negotiations is to
compensate developing nations for the damage they suffer. But which nations
should receive money? And which extreme weather events were influenced by
Most nations last year signed up to an agreement to establish a so-called “loss
and damage” fund. It would provide a means for developed nations – which are
disproportionately responsible for greenhouse gas emissions – to provide money
to vulnerable nations dealing with the effects of climate change.
Part of the fund would help developing nations recover from catastrophic
extreme weather. For example, it might be used to rebuild homes and hospitals
after a floods or provide food and emergency cash transfers after a cyclone.
Some experts have suggested the science of “event attribution” could be used to
determine how the funds are distributed. Event attribution attempts to
determine the causes of extreme weather events – in particular, whether
human-caused climate change played a part.
But as our new paper sets out, event attribution is not yet a good way to
calculate compensation for nations vulnerable to climate change. An alternative
strategy is needed."
*** Xanni ***
Chief Scientist, Xanadu
Partner, Glass Wings
Manager, Serious Cybernetics