"Want to know how much solar power the world will be producing next year, or
five years from now? Anyone that has followed solar’s evolution will know the
golden rule: look at the International Energy Agency’s projection and assume it
will be much more.
Year after year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) underestimated how
quickly solar PV would grow.
You might have seen the infamous chart below (or a variation of it) comparing
the IEA’s projections to reality. There are many versions and updates of this
chart; this one is from the energy researcher, Auke Hoekstra.
It was reasonable that the IEA would get its projections wrong the first few
times: that was to be expected for an emerging technology. What was odd was its
failure to self-correct: despite being fiercely criticised for falling into the
same trap, it did the same thing over and over.
It’s easy to criticise the IEA, but it’s not alone. Most of us underestimated
how quickly solar would scale over the past decade.
Electric cars are becoming the new solar. They’re growing rapidly and will
scale faster than most people expect, including the IEA.
Let’s take a look at the evidence."
Via Future Crunch
*** Xanni ***
Chief Scientist, Xanadu
Partner, Glass Wings
Manager, Serious Cybernetics