"Recent spikes in ocean heat content and average global air temperature have
left climate scientists across the world scrambling to find the cause. The
global average air temperature, relative to 1850-1900, exceeded the 1.5℃ lower
Paris Agreement threshold during part of March and the first days of June. This
last happened in 2020, and before that during the powerful 2015-16 El Niño.
What makes these most recent temperature spikes so alarming is that they’ve
occurred before a forecast El Niño event in the Pacific, rather than during
It is now clear that Earth’s climate system is way out of kilter and we should
be very concerned.
We already know El Niño events are associated with above-average global
temperatures. Given the impending El Niño, we all need to take extra notice of
what lies ahead for the next few years. This is especially so as this forecast
warming event will follow the recent rare triple La Niña event that usually
brings cooler average global temperatures, meaning the trajectory of this
year’s uptick in average temperatures is likely to be even steeper.
The Earth Energy Imbalance - the difference between the amount of energy
arriving from the Sun and the amount returning to space - is now running at an
all-time high. This is the most crucial measure of the prospects for continued
global heating and human-driven climate change.
This metric will also be vital for monitoring our overall success in meeting
the Paris Agreement’s targets, which call for humanity to hold average warming
ideally to 1.5℃ above the pre-industrial average, or at least to as much under
2℃ as possible."
*** Xanni ***
Chief Scientist, Xanadu
Partner, Glass Wings
Manager, Serious Cybernetics