<
https://thechinaproject.com/2023/09/21/china-is-going-to-use-less-coal-despite-reports-to-the-contrary/>
"Now is not a great time to start a career as a coal miner in China, as
insiders predict that demand will soften in industries that use the dirtiest
fossil fuel to power production of electricity, steel, petrochemicals, and
building materials.
“China’s cement production capacity has now plateaued at around 1,800 kilos per
capita,” a Chinese Cement Association representative told the 2023 Coal Market
Summit in early September in Nanning. “This is much higher than the production
capacity levels of developed economies. We expect this number to drop
long-term, following the slowing demand from the real estate sector.”
Coal traders and shippers attending the summit, held not far from the major
coal-processing ports of southwestern China, hung on every word from the
industry reps, eager for insights into prices and demand for coal in the coming
months to aid them in their navigation of China’s real estate downturn.
Early in September, economists lowered the Chinese economic growth outlook to
5% for 2023, down from the 5.5% forecast in a July survey, leaving room for
more downgrades.
No matter how the Chinese economy performs in the coming months and years, the
best days of the cement industry are surely behind it. The industry rep went on
to explain how the sector is preparing for a long-term drawdown in production
capacity over the next 13 years, expecting to stabilize somewhere around 700
kilos per capita by 2036 — a 61% drop from current levels. This long-term
slide, he said, would show up in 2023 as a 2.7% decrease in cement industry
coal demand.
For traders and shippers at the summit, no detail was too small. What would
coking coal cost in November? Would demand for thermal coal in urea production
hold? These sector-level nuggets of intel could determine the difference
between profit and loss."
Via
Future Crunch:
<
https://futurecrunch.com/good-news-net-zero-rhinos-africa-maternal-asia/>
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
