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https://theconversation.com/us-election-2024-trump-victory-in-iowa-caucus-not-as-big-as-he-may-have-hoped-heres-why-biden-still-wants-him-to-get-gop-nomination-221257>
"News headlines reporting Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucus on January
15 gave the impression of a much larger victory than should sensibly be drawn
from this first expression of American electoral opinion in 2024. Iowa grabs
attention because it’s the first of the 2024 election primaries, but the
historical record also shows that it has only predicted the eventual winner on
six out of 13 occasions since it took on this role in 1972.
The last successful GOP candidate who won the Iowa caucus was George W Bush in
2000.
This is partly because Iowa, with just over 3 million inhabitants represents
less than 1% of the wider US population. Its voters are also much older, more
rural, whiter (90%), more evangelical and less college educated than the US at
large. Although formerly a swing state Iowa has been solidly republican since
2016.
Those turning out to vote for Trump were also a smaller, self-selecting subset
of even that tiny population. Those supporting Trump were 51% of those
registered Republicans who turned out to vote on one of the coldest nights of
the year amounted to just 110,298 people.
Similarly, Trump’s margin of victory needs context. His 51% share of the vote
and margin of victory over the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, of 30%, are – as
much of the press note – “unprecedented”. But so is the fact of a former
president standing in the primary and caucus process. This has not happened
since Herbert Hoover ran, and lost, in 1940.
Still styling himself “President Trump” and turning up with his secret service
detail in full view makes Trump unlike any of the other candidates. Similarly,
his reputation, name recognition and constant presence in the news headlines
over the past year have all contributed to his success in the mid-western
state. So the result there has come as no surprise to close watchers of the
process.
While Trump leaves Iowa in a strong position there remains the possibility that
former South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley – who ran third in Iowa – could do
sufficiently well in New Hampshire and South Carolina to carry on throughout
the primary process as an alternative to Trump. But to do so would require her
to match Trump’s attacks on her with a more critical response to the record and
reputation of the former president.
Her reluctance to do so suggests to some that Haley is running for the number
two spot in order to be picked as a potential vice-presidential nominee. A more
likely explanation for her failure to attack Trump harder is a desire not to
alienate his fanatical base in the hope that she inherits the Republican Party
nomination as a result of the unravelling of Trump’s current momentum due to
legal reasons (he presently faces 91 criminal charges) or other unforeseen
events."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
