<
https://reneweconomy.com.au/we-need-to-talk-about-gas-emissions-and-the-climate-methane-bomb/>
"The past five years have seen a crowded contest over the future role of gas.
Gas of course matters because of its effects on economies and industries, but
most existentially, it matters because of its implications as a greenhouse gas.
It follows, then, that observers, analysts and policy makers should properly
understand those greenhouse gas emissions if they are to respond to them in the
way that’s required. As things stand, however, the picture is far from clear.
A bias in the way that methane emissions are reported makes it almost
impossible to understand the real emissions impact of gas when it leaks. This
nontrivial bias is inhibiting a frank assessment of the emissions implications
of continuing gas use and is potentially slowing our pursuit of electrification
for the gas uses it can replace.
Investors and Australians more broadly deserve greater clarity.
We are told that the global warming effect of one tonne of methane is
equivalent to 28-36 tonnes of carbon dioxide. That sounds bad, but with a more
informed reading it’s apparent that the implications for global warming are
more like three times that figure.
This difference in reading comes from an understanding of how long methane
takes to break down in the atmosphere and when the measurement is taken. It has
been standard to discuss emissions based on a Global Warming Potential measured
at the 100-year mark, after the greenhouse gas has had a century suspended in
the atmosphere.
Methane has a much stronger warming effect earlier in its atmospheric life. It
means that the global warming impact can appear higher or lower depending on
when it is measured, whether soon after it is emitted or after more years spent
in our atmosphere.
After having a century to decompose to lower levels, methane still punches out
28-36 times the global warming of carbon dioxide. In the near term it is much
higher.
If measured over a more relevant 20-year life, that same methane causes 84-87
times the global warming per volume of carbon dioxide. That means leaked
natural gas is not far off 100 times worse than carbon dioxide emissions.
Emissions reduction and draw down this decade and next are absolutely critical.
With mounting evidence of climate tipping points, it’s essential that we keep
our focus on near-term measures that slow their approach. It makes no sense to
measure gas emissions long after they have declined."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
