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https://theconversation.com/hurricane-forecast-points-to-a-dangerous-2024-atlantic-season-with-la-nina-and-a-persistently-warm-ocean-teaming-up-to-power-fierce-storms-228351>
"The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, and forecasters are
predicting an exceptionally active season.
If the National Hurricane Center’s early forecast, released May 23, is right,
the North Atlantic could see 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes, and
four to seven major hurricanes by the end of November. That’s the highest
number of named storms in any NOAA preseason forecast.
Other forecasts for the season have been just as intense. Colorado State
University’s early outlook, released in April, predicted an average of 23 named
storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. The European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts anticipates 21 named storms.
Colorado State also forecasts a whopping 210 accumulated cyclone energy units
for 2024, and NOAA forecasts the second-highest ACE on record. Accumulated
cyclone energy is a score for how active a given season is by combining
intensity and duration of all storms occurring within a given season. Anything
over 103 is considered above normal.
These outlooks place the 2024 season in league with 2020, when so many tropical
cyclones formed in the Atlantic that they exhausted the usual list of storm
names: A record 30 named storms, 13 hurricanes and six major hurricanes formed
that year, combining for 245 accumulated cyclone energy units.
So, what makes for a highly active Atlantic hurricane season?"
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
