https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/theory-victory-ukraine
"The U.S. government decided to provide more assistance to Ukraine just in the
nick of time. By the end of April, right before the aid package passed, the
war-torn country was emptying its last reserves of ammunition and rationing
artillery rounds and shells—and Ukrainian forces began to lose ground in part
as a result. The $60 billion now flowing into Ukraine will help correct these
disparities, providing Kyiv an opportunity to stop Russia’s offensive. The aid
package also serves as a massive psychological boost, giving Ukrainians
newfound confidence that they will not be abandoned by their most important
partner.
But the aid package alone cannot answer the central question facing Ukraine:
how to win the war. Neither can contributions from Europe and beyond, necessary
as they are to keeping Kyiv afloat as the conflict drags on. What Ukraine needs
is not just more assistance but also a theory of victory—something that some of
its partners have studiously avoided discussing. The United States has never
planned out its support for Kyiv beyond a few months at a time, even as
Congress mandated the provision of a long-term U.S. strategy for its support of
Ukraine as a part of the aid bill. It has focused on short-term maneuvers, such
as the much-anticipated 2023 counteroffensive, rather than viable long-term
strategies or aims—including a potential triumph over Russia. Until end of last
year, U.S. officials refrained from even using the term “victory” in public.
Similarly, the United States has generally avoided describing its goal in
Ukraine as a Russian defeat. Washington’s only real long-term statement—that it
will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”—is, by itself, meaningless.
To this point, Ukraine has been clear about its objectives. They include the
liberation of all territory within its internationally recognized borders; the
return of prisoners of war, deported citizens, and kidnapped children; justice
through war crimes prosecution and compensation; and the establishment of
long-term security arrangements. But Kyiv and its partners are not yet on the
same page regarding how these might be achieved. No one, it seems, has come up
with a theory for how Kyiv can win.
It is time for that to change. The West must explicitly state that its goal is
a decisive Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat, and it must commit to
supplying Kyiv with direct military aid and to supporting the country’s
burgeoning defense industry. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, must work to advance
until they can expel Russian forces from all occupied territory, including
Crimea. As Ukraine makes progress toward this goal, it will eventually become
clear to Russian citizens that they will continue to lose not only ground in
Ukraine but also vast human and economic resources—and their future prospects
for prosperity and stability. At that point, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
regime could come under substantial pressure, from both within and without, to
end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine."
Via Joerg Fliege.
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
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mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
