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https://theconversation.com/an-intergenerational-crime-against-humanity-what-will-it-take-for-political-leaders-to-start-taking-climate-change-seriously-231383>
"In February 2024, I attended the annual conference of the Australian
Meteorological and Oceanographic Society – the peak group for scientists
working in all branches of weather and climate research. Over the past decade,
the mood of our gatherings has become increasingly sombre. Some presenters have
taken to apologising in advance for their confronting results, with some
attempting to soften the blow by including funny animated gifs or photos of
soothing sunsets to comfort the audience.
It’s not hard to understand why. This year we had a plenary address by a
distinguished IPCC veteran. The speaker began by saying that the world has
“Buckley’s chance” of achieving the 1.5°C target, and even 2°C is going to be a
stretch. If emissions continue at the current rate, the 1.5°C threshold could
be breached as soon as 2028.
Forget the critical decade, what happens every single month during the next
handful of years is crucial in determining how quickly we drain the remaining
carbon budget needed to achieve the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
People who have been working in the field for decades are no longer
sugarcoating the bad news – they want us to feel an appropriate level of alarm
and outrage so we can get on with the job of doing something about the terrible
situation we find ourselves in. We need you to stare into the abyss with us and
not turn away.
Even a cursory look at the latest figures released by the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) shows that the situation we are facing is
extremely serious. The
2023 Emissions Gap Report – subtitled “Broken Record:
Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)” –
explains that, even in the most optimistic scenario, the chance of limiting
global warming to 1.5°C is just 14%, with various scenarios indicating a 90%
probability of warming between 2°C and 3°C by the end of the century.
If currently implemented policies are continued with no increase in ambition,
there is a 90% chance that the Earth will warm between 2.3°C and 4.5°C, with a
best estimate of 3.5°C.
Despite all the political rhetoric you might have heard in the news, the
scientific reality is that the planet is still on track for catastrophic levels
of warming. Even if nations make good on their net zero promises – which is a
big “if” because right now many nations’ pledges have no finance, weak
implementation or limited political ambition, so are effectively empty promises
– there is a 90% chance that we are still on track for 2.4°C of global warming
under this best-case scenario, which will lock in centuries of irreversible
changes to the climate system.
I know these numbers are hard for most people to absorb, so perhaps the best
way to grasp the reality of climate change in Australia is to consider the
impacts we’ve already witnessed so far with 1.2°C of global warming."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
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mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
