<
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/21/russia-win-ukraine-vladimir-putin-europe>
"There are human activities in which both sides can win. War is not one of
them. Either Ukraine wins this war or Russia does. Ukraine’s former foreign
minister Dmytro Kuleba says bluntly that unless the current trajectory is
changed, “we will lose this war”.
To be clear: this is still avoidable. Suppose the roughly four-fifths of
Ukrainian territory still controlled by Kyiv gets military commitments from the
west strong enough to deter any further Russian advances, secure large-scale
investment in economic reconstruction, encourage Ukrainians to return from
abroad to rebuild their country, and allow for stable, pro-European politics
and reform. In five years, the country joins the EU, and then, under a new US
administration, starts the process of entering Nato. Most of Ukraine becomes a
sovereign, independent, free country, firmly anchored in the west.
The loss of a large amount of territory, the suffering of at least 3.5 million
Ukrainians living under Russian occupation and the toll of dead, maimed and
traumatised would amount to a terrible cost. This would not be the complete
victory Ukrainians have hoped for and deserve; but it would still be a victory
for Ukraine and a historic defeat for Russia. A majority of Ukrainians could
come to see it as such. In polling the Kyiv International Institute of
Sociology (KIIS) has shared with me in advance, Ukrainians are asked if to end
the war they could (albeit with difficulty) accept the combination of economic
reconstruction and EU and Nato membership for the current territory. In just
the past six months, the proportion saying yes has jumped from 47% to 64%.
However, to get to this outcome with Donald Trump in the White House would
require a European coalition-of-the-willing to make security commitments of a
size and boldness not seen so far. There’s a growing understanding of this
among European leaders, but the democratic politics in most European countries
are miles away from empowering them to do it. To try to persuade Europeans to
support the necessary policies, but also to understand the consequences if – as
seems most likely – they don’t do so in time, the question we have to ask is:
what if Russia wins?
If Russia wins, we should realistically expect the following consequences for
Ukraine, Europe, the United States and world peace. Ukraine would be defeated,
divided, demoralised and depopulated. The money would not come in to
reconstruct the country; instead, another wave of people would leave it. The
politics would become rancorous, with a strong anti-western trend. New
possibilities for Russian disinformation and political destabilisation would
emerge. Necessary reforms would stall, and hence also progress towards EU
membership.
Europe as a whole would see an escalation of the hybrid war that Russia is
already waging against it, still largely unnoticed by most blithely
Christmas-shopping west Europeans. Not a week passes without some incident: a
Russian destroyer fires a flare at a German military helicopter; there are
exploding DHL packages, sabotage on the French railways, an arson attack on a
Ukrainian-owned business in east London; undersea cables in the Baltic Sea are
cut; there’s a credible death threat to a top German arms manufacturer. Not all
can definitely be traced back to Moscow, but many can."
Via Joerg Fliege.
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
