<
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/28/we-need-dramatic-social-and-technological-changes-is-societal-collapse-inevitable>
"For someone who has examined 361 studies and 73 books on societal collapses,
Danilo Brozović’s conclusion on what must happen to avoid today’s world
imploding is both disarmingly simple and a daunting challenge: “We need
dramatic social and technological changes.”
The collapse of past civilisations, from the mighty Mayan empire to Rapa Nui
(Easter Island), has long fascinated people and for obvious reasons – how
stable is our own society? Does ever-growing complexity in societies or human
hubris inevitably lead to oblivion? In the face of the climate crisis, rampant
destruction of the natural world, rising geopolitical tensions and more, the
question is more urgent than ever.
“More and more academic articles are mentioning the threat of collapse because
of climate change,” says Brozović at the school of business at the University
of Skövde, Sweden. The issue of collapse hooked him after it was raised in a
project on business sustainability, which then led to his comprehensive review
in 2023.
The field is not short of extreme pessimists. “They believe what we are doing
will eventually cause the extinction of the human race,” says Brozović. Some
say today’s challenges are so great that it is now time humanity comes to terms
with extinction, and even build a vault containing our greatest cultural
achievements as a record for some future – perhaps alien – civilisation.
Others, using data on deforestation and population, rate the chance of
catastrophic collapse at 90% or more.
Most scholars are more optimistic, if not actually optimists. Brozović says:
“They say collapse for us will just be the end of life as we know it today.
There will be less globalisation and a lower standard of life, affecting public
health very negatively.”
This raises the question of what is meant by collapse: most agree it is the
loss of complex social and political structures over a few decades at most. But
by this definition, many classic collapses, misinterpreted in the rear-view
mirror of history, may actually be better described as transformations. He
says: “In the last 10 years or so, people are asking did the Rapa Nui society
collapse or did it reinvent itself?” he says."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
