<
https://reneweconomy.com.au/its-the-s-curve-stupid-new-model-predicts-half-of-worlds-energy-will-come-from-solar-by-2035/>
"In the hazy first weeks of 2025 – with Los Angeles burning, Trump headed back
to the White House, and Australia approaching an election that could be
disastrous for climate and renewables – solar PV remains an unbroken ray of
hope.
This remarkable technology, which owes a good deal of its modern success to
Australian researchers and universities, dominates the new energy landscape all
around the globe, growing at a rate that continues to defy expectations, all
the while becoming cheaper, more efficient and faster to deploy.
According to estimates from the Global Solar Council and SolarPower Europe, the
world reached the stunning cumulative total of 2 terawatts (TW) of installed
solar capacity in November last year – a milestone that came just two years
after the first terawatt mark, which took 68 years to notch up.
In Australia, rooftop solar alone regularly supplies the majority of daytime
power in South Australia’s grid and in other state networks is gearing up to do
the same.
In New South Wales, utility-scale solar generated more than 40 per cent of the
state’s power for the first time in the first week of January – a remarkable
milestone for one of Australia’s biggest remaining coal power holdouts.
But can solar keep up the pace? Or rather, can solar growth ramp up to the
levels needed to triple renewables and meet increasingly urgent climate
targets?
According to a newly launched climate modeling tool, the answer to these
questions is a resounding ‘yes’ – or, more accurately, ‘you ain’t seen nothin’
yet.’
The S-Curve model, developed by Australian solar industry pioneer Andrew Birch,
predicts that by 2035, half of the world’s energy needs will be supplied by
solar in a classic S-curve technology shift.
The S-Curve projects forward solar’s historical trends, predicting that it will
continue to fall in cost by 10% a year and grow at 25% a year. This will see
solar energy eclipse nuclear power this year and eclipse oil by 2031."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
