<
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/05/china-just-turned-off-u-s-supplies-of-minerals-critical-for-defense-cleantech/>
"In April 2025, while most of the world was clutching pearls over trade war
tit-for-tat tariffs, China calmly walked over to the supply chain and yanked
out a handful of critical bolts. The bolts are made of dysprosium, terbium,
tungsten, indium and yttrium—the elements that don’t make headlines but without
which your electric car doesn’t run, your fighter jet doesn’t fly, and your
solar panels go from clean energy marvels to overpriced roofing tiles. They’re
minerals that show up on obscure government risk registers right before wars
start or cleantech projects get quietly cancelled.
I’ve been on a bit of a critical minerals kick recently, starting to understand
more about them and their roles in our economy. In addition to reading a lot of
books and debunking some doomerist nonsense on the subject, I had the privilege
of spending 90 minutes with Gavin Mudd, director of the critical minerals
intelligence centre at the British Geological Survey, recently for
Redefining
Energy–Tech, talking about them, the West’s remarkable treatment of them as
not critical for the past 40 years, and how hard it is for the West to actually
rebuild capacity in the space. China’s actions led to me going deeper. I’ve
also spent a fair amount of time talking to and following Lyle Trytten, the
Nickel Nerd, whose career of engineering extraction and processing of minerals
spans the globe.
What China did wasn’t a ban, at least not in name. They called it export
licensing. Sounds like something a trade lawyer might actually be excited
about. But make no mistake: this was a surgical strike. They didn’t need to say
no. They just needed to say “maybe later” to the right set of paperwork. These
licenses give Beijing control over not just where these materials go, but how
fast they go, in what quantity, and to which politically convenient customers.
The U.S.? Let’s just say Washington should get comfortable waiting behind the
rope line. The licenses have to be applied for and the end use including
country of final destination must be clearly spelled out. Licenses for end uses
in the U.S. are unlikely to be approved. What’s astonishing is how predictable
this all was. China has spent decades building its dominance over these supply
chains, while the U.S. was busy outsourcing, divesting, and cheerfully ignoring
every report that said, “Hey, maybe 90% dependence on a single country we keep
starting trade wars with and rattling sabers at is a bad idea.”
The materials China just restricted aren’t random. They’re chosen with the
precision of someone who’s read U.S. product spec sheets and defense
procurement orders. Start with dysprosium. If your electric motor needs to
function at high temperatures—and they all do—then mostly it is using neodymium
magnets doped with dysprosium. No dysprosium, no thermal stability. No thermal
stability, no functioning motor in your F-35 or your Mustang Mach-E. China
controls essentially the entire supply of dysprosium, and no, there is no
magical mine in Wyoming or Quebec waiting in the wings. If dysprosium doesn’t
come out of China, it doesn’t come out at all. It’s the spinal cord of
electrification, and right now China’s holding the vertebrae."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
