<
https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/model-predicting-united-states-disorder-now-points-to-civil-war/12365280>
'In the early 1990s, when Bill Clinton was in the White House and the
United States looked unshakeable, the administration appointed Jack
Goldstone to study how states fail. They meant other states; not the US.
Few expected that his model would later predict their country's collapse.
In an unpublished paper submitted for peer review, Professor Goldstone,
who is a sociologist, and Peter Turchin, an expert on the mathematical
modelling of historical societies, have concluded that the US is "headed
for another civil war".
The conditions for civil violence, they say, are the worst since the
19th century — in particular the years leading up to the start of the
American Civil War in 1861.
The reason for this are trends that began in the 1980s, "with regard to
inequality, selfish elites, and polarisation that have crippled the
ability of the US government to mount an effective response to the
pandemic disease," they write.
This has also "hampered our ability to deliver an inclusive economic
relief policy, and exacerbated the tensions over racial injustice."'
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://www.xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
http://www.glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
http://www.sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
