"Limiting global warming to 1.5℃ this century is a central goal of the Paris
Agreement. In recent months, climate experts and others, including in
Australia, have suggested the target is now impossible.
Whether Earth can stay within 1.5℃ warming involves two distinct questions.
First, is it physically, technically and economically feasible, considering the
physics of the Earth system and possible rates of societal change? Science
indicates the answer is “yes” – although it will be very difficult and the best
opportunities for success lie in the past.
The second question is whether governments will take sufficient action to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This answer depends on the ambition of
governments, and the effectiveness of campaigning by non-government
organisations and others.
So scientifically speaking, humanity can still limit global warming to 1.5°C
this century. But political action will determine whether it actually
Conflating the two questions amounts to misplaced punditry, and is dangerous."
*** Xanni ***
Chief Scientist, Xanadu
Partner, Glass Wings
Manager, Serious Cybernetics