Will Australia follow Europe into a fourth COVID wave? Boosters, vaccinating kids, ventilation and masks may help us avoid it

Fri, 3 Dec 2021 05:50:56 +1100

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam

"Europe is facing a fourth wave of COVID. As we watch on, it is reasonable to
ask whether Australia will be confronted with the same fate.

Several factors will determine this: vaccination rates, high uptake of third
dose boosters, vaccination of children and whether a comprehensive strategy of
ventilation with vaccine-plus measures including masks, testing and tracing are

New OzSAGE modelling for NSW shows possible increasing cases from mid-December
with a predicted peak in February 2022, despite high vaccination rates. OzSAGE
warns if contact tracing is not maintained and children 5–11 remain
unvaccinated, hospitals may be overwhelmed again. But if we vaccinate young
kids and maintain high testing and tracing, the outlook is good."

       *** Xanni ***
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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