Russia’s Ukraine invasion is slowly approaching an inflection point. Is the West prepared to step up?

Sat, 30 Jul 2022 07:09:27 +1000

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://theconversation.com/russias-ukraine-invasion-is-slowly-approaching-an-inflection-point-is-the-west-prepared-to-step-up-186388>

"Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has finally delivered him something
approaching a minor victory. With his forces recently taking control of
Lysychansk, Russia now controls virtually all of Luhansk oblast (province).

That’s one of the two Donbas provinces the Kremlin has decided to “liberate”,
in rapidly-adjusted war aims made necessary by its botched assault on Kyiv in
February 2022.

That it took Putin so long – some 130 days since his invasion, and over eight
years after the Kremlin engineered an uprising there – to capture the
easternmost province of Ukraine speaks volumes for the poor performance of the
Russian military, both in terms of tactics and capability. But it’s enough for
the Kremlin to consider an operational pause before trying to capture the rest
of the adjoining Donetsk province.

This lull before the next phase of a long attritional campaign will be a test
of Ukrainian resolve, Russia’s ability to resupply, and the West’s strategic
patience."

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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