<
https://priceonomics.com/why-the-father-of-modern-statistics-didnt-believe/>
"In the summer of 1957, Ronald Fisher, one of the fathers of modern statistics,
sat down to write a strongly worded letter in defense of tobacco.
The letter was addressed to the
British Medical Journal, which, just a few
weeks earlier, had taken the editorial position that smoking cigarettes causes
lung cancer. According to the journal’s editorial board, the time for amassing
evidence and analyzing data was over. Now, they wrote, “all the modern devices
of publicity” should be used to inform the public about the perils of tobacco.
According to Fisher, this was nothing short of statistically illiterate fear
mongering. Surely the danger posed to the smoking masses was “not the mild and
soothing weed,” he wrote, “but the organized creation of states of frantic
alarm.”
Fisher was a well-known hothead (and an inveterate pipe smoker), but the letter
and the resulting debate, which lasted until his death in 1962, was taken as a
serious critique by the scientific community. After all, Ronald A. Fisher had
spent much of his career devising ways to mathematically evaluate causal
claims—claims exactly like the one that the
British Medical Journal was
making about smoking and cancer. Along the way, he had revolutionized the way
that biological scientists conduct experiments and analyze data.
And yet we know how this debate ends. On one of the most significant public
health questions of the 20th century, Fisher got it wrong."
Via Cass M, who wrote "A fascinating look back at statistics and whether
smoking increases risk of lung cancer. No one is infallible."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
