https://archive.md/nxh7O
"Shell Plc recently published two energy security scenarios, its latest in a
long series of thorough and (at least to energy analysts) memorable views into
energy’s possible futures. The first, called Archipelagos, is an extension of
the world’s current path; the second, Sky 2050, works backward from an
idealized outcome of net zero emissions and limited global temperature
increase.
(Notably, the Sky 2050 scenario sees high oil prices incentivizing demand
reduction. That’s a prospect countries, which are already grappling with rising
inflation, may face in the coming months after OPEC+’s unexpected decision this
weekend to cut oil output.)
The report is packed with charts and projections, but there is one historical
chart worth exploring in detail.
Shell examined the four major energy technologies to emerge in the past six
decades: nuclear power, liquefied natural gas and solar and wind power. Each
technology needed years before it made a meaningful, if minor, contribution to
the global energy supply, a threshold Shell sets at one exajoule annually. (One
exajoule is equivalent to 277 terawatt-hours — close to the electricity Mexico
consumed in 2019.)
For example, the first grid-connected nuclear power plant began operations in
the Soviet Union in 1954, and nuclear power reached 1 exajoule of global supply
19 years later. Solar took more than three decades to contribute an exajoule of
supply, with the first commercial solar projects built in the early 1980s and
the first exajoule not reached until 2016.
A technology’s speed after it hits that milestone is much more important than
its speed before. Nuclear power doubled in the four years after, then doubled
again within another five years. It now supplies more than eight times as much
energy as it did 50 years ago. Liquefied natural gas had a slower start, taking
nearly a decade to go from 1 exajoule to 2, and the same amount of time again
to go from 2 to 4. Its progress leapt ahead in the late 2000s, nearly two
decades after it supplied its first annual exajoule. But it still provides less
energy than nuclear power today."
Via
Future Crunch:
<
https://futurecrunch.com/good-news-heart-united-states-democracy-uruguay-nature-rights-ecuador/>
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
