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https://theconversation.com/the-ipccs-calls-for-emissions-cuts-have-gone-unheeded-for-too-long-should-it-change-the-way-it-reports-on-climate-change-202837>
Emissions from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric
concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO₂, methane, CFCs and nitrous oxide.
These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in
an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.
Long-lived gases would require immediate reductions in emissions from human
activities of over 60% to stabilise their concentrations at today’s levels.
"These are not statements from the latest report released by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They come from its first
assessment in 1990.
Back then, the IPCC acknowledged there were uncertainties in the predictions
due to incomplete scientific understanding of sources and sinks of greenhouse
gases. But what has actually happened in the 30 years since largely matches the
predictions:
* an average rate of global sea level rise of 30-100mm per decade due to the
thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of some land ice
* an increase of global mean temperature of about 0.3℃ per decade under
business as usual.
The IPCC also predicted the rise in temperature would slow as we ramped up
efforts to cut emissions, but this scenario hasn’t been tested because
emissions reductions never happened.
In 1990, the IPCC also presented the first warnings about potential climate
change impacts. It then repeated them in one form or another in the following
five assessment reports. But emissions continued to rise each year, resulting
in a global temperature increase of 1.1-1.2℃."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
