https://archive.md/rZgQa
"Here’s an arresting thought: 2022 may have been the year carbon emissions from
the global electricity sector peaked for good. Yet the energy technologies that
got us there face a growing thicket of restraints just at the wrong moment.
The prospect of an emissions peak is raised in a recent review of global
electricity data published by Ember, a UK-based think tank that advocates for
clean energy. This would be an epochal event: Electricity generation is the
single biggest source of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, accounting
for 42% last year. If transitions are all about replacing one set of
technologies with another, that process begins with the older system peaking
and then declining.
For all the complexities that involves, the math is straightforward: If global
electricity demand rises by X watt-hours and non-emitting generation rises by
X+1 watt-hours then, by definition, electricity from carbon-emitting sources
like coal and natural gas declined.
Last year, non-fossil fuel sources — including wind, solar, nuclear, hydro and
biofuels — met 74% of the increase in electricity demand, on Ember’s numbers.
The figure is 80% for wind and solar alone, reflecting an unusual drop in other
non-emitting output, mainly due to French nuclear outages and closures in
Germany. All-told, this brought emissions intensity for the global power sector
to an all-time low.
With a few basic assumptions, non-emitting generation’s share of the growth in
demand could plausibly push past 100% this year, meaning electricity from
fossil fuels would drop slightly. Assume demand for electricity grows by 2.5%,
wind and solar output by 18.6% and generation from other non-emitting sources
by 1.7% (these are all 10-year averages through 2022). On that basis, the world
would consume an extra 726 terawatt-hours — and non-emitting sources would
provide all that and more, with an extra 773 terawatt-hours."
Via
Future Crunch:
<
https://futurecrunch.com/good-news-trachoma-benin-mali-deforestation-brazil-seine-paris/>
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
