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https://theconversation.com/have-some-economists-severely-underestimated-the-financial-hit-from-climate-change-recent-evidence-suggests-yes-214579>
"Scientists say severe climate change is now the greatest threat to humanity.
Extreme weather is expected to upend lives and livelihoods, intensifying
wildfires and pushing ecosystems towards collapse as ocean heatwaves savage
coral reefs. The threats are far-reaching and widespread.
So what effect would you expect this to have on the economy in coming decades?
It may surprise you, but most economic models predict climate change will just
be a blip, with a minor impact on gross domestic product (GDP).
Heating the planet beyond 3°C is extraordinarily dangerous. The last time Earth
was that warm was three million years ago, when there was almost no ice and
seas were 20 metres higher. But economic models predict even this level of heat
to have very mild impacts on global GDP per capita by century’s end. Most
predict a hit of around 1% to 7%, while the most pessimistic modelling suggests
GDP shrinking by 23%.
In these models, some countries are completely unaffected by climate change.
Others even benefit. For most countries, the damage is small enough to be
offset by technological growth. Australia’s recent Intergenerational Report
suggests something similar.
This, it is becoming abundantly clear, is a failure of the modelling. To make
these models, economists reach into the past to model damage from weather. But
severe climate change would be a global shock that is wholly outside our
experience. Inevitably, models can’t come close to capturing the upheavals
climate change could cause in markets fundamental to human life, such as
agriculture."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
