<
https://thedriven.io/2024/08/29/ev-forecasts-slashed-as-new-vehicle-standards-allow-car-makers-room-to-push-hybrids/>
"Forecasts for the uptake of electric vehicles in Australia have been slashed
dramatically – and the impact of the federal government’s signature vehicle
emission standards, which allows car makers room to push hybrid options, have
been blamed – to the delight of the big Japanese car makers.
The latest 10-year outlook by the Australian Energy Market Operator, which
includes forecasts for consumption and supply over the coming decades, now
predicts that there will be four million EVs on Australian roads by 2034,
consuming around eight terawatt hours (TWh) a year from charging from the grid.
That four million forecast would account for around one quarter of all
residential passenger vehicle, but it is down significantly from the forecast
of seven million EVs made just last December.
AEMO says the EV forecast has been “tempered” by new data that reflects longer
vehicle lifetimes – which means owners of petrol and diesel cars may be slow to
buy new cars and make the switch to electric.
But it also cites the impact of the federal government’s New Vehicle Efficiency
Standard (NVES), which was legislated in May 2024 and will take effect from
January 1 next year.
It says NVERS will provide flexibility to the big manufacturers in how they
reduce emissions, and it notes many of them will now choose to do so through
mild hybrids and plug in hybrids, rather than full battery electric cars.
NVERS was contested heavily by the legacy car industry, and the federal
Coalition and conservative media, and there was concern that the concessions
made would slow the hoped-for transition to EVs. Japanese car makers, in
particularly, fought furiously against the proposal, as they have in other
countries.
Their efforts appear to have paid off. Perhaps the most stunning change in the
AEMO forecasts is the revised outlook for plug in hybrids (PHEVs) – one of the
favoured technologies of the legacy car makers because it does little to change
their business model that is dependent on engine repairs, and does not do so
much for cutting emissions."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
