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https://thedriven.io/2024/09/12/how-to-get-battery-electric-vehicles-to-the-mainstream/>
"It usually takes time for new technologies to gain widespread acceptance.
According to Everett M. Rogers’ Technology Adoption Life Cycle model, new
technologies follow a five-stage diffusion path that starts with tech-savvy,
often more wealthy “innovators” and ends with “laggards.”
We saw this with radios, cable TV, and personal computers, and now we’re seeing
it with battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
Between the consumers in the early market who embrace innovations quickly and
those who hesitate lies a “chasm” that Geoffrey Moore identified as the most
critical point for the successful diffusion of new technologies. In Europe now,
the adoption of BEVs is right around the chasm, and that’s why the key enabling
policies we’ll discuss below are so critical.
We’ll start with a bit of context. In Europe, the total number of BEVs
registered in the first half of 2024 was just over 954,000, a 1.6% increase
compared with the same period in 2023. (Here Europe covers the 27 European
Union [EU] Member States, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the United
Kingdom.)
The EU-27 alone had 1.3% growth rate in the first half of 2024 compared with
the first half of 2023. The BEV share of all cars registered in Europe reached
13.9% in the first half of 2024, almost the same as the 14.2% in the first half
of 2023 (in the EU-27 alone it was 12.5% for first half 2024 versus 12.9% for
first half of 2023).
Still, the BEV share of all new registrations decreased in 16 out of our 31
European countries from the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2024.
Of the three largest European passenger car markets by new registrations,
Germany’s BEV share decreased by 3 percentage points, France’s increased by
almost 2 percentage points, and in the United Kingdom, it increased slightly by
half a percentage point. Malta, Denmark, and Belgium saw the largest increases
in new registration shares, by 15, 14, and 8 percentage points, respectively,
in the first half of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023.
Because the European markets are developing at different rates, some skepticism
about the future of BEVs has emerged in media coverage in various regions,
including Germany and the United Kingdom. We’ve seen such reactions to other
innovations in the past, though. So, let’s use the Rogers model to put today’s
BEV trends into perspective."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
