<
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/19/russia-china-global-security-climate-breakdown>
"The Irish sea captain who in 1751 discovered the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation (Amoc) – closely connected with, though not identical
to, the Gulf Stream – found a practical use for it: he used the frigid deeper
water to cool his wine.
That may seem a rather frivolous response, but of course, Capt Henry Ellis had
no idea that the oceanic pattern he had stumbled upon had been critical to the
climate, the agriculture and indeed the entire development of western Europe.
The same excuse can hardly be made for British and European governments today.
The latest scientific analysis based on evidence from the last ice age suggests
that there is a possibility that, because of global heating and the resulting
influx of fresh water from the melting Greenland ice cap, the Amoc could shut
down with surprising speed, and as early as the middle of this century.
If that occurs, the consequences would be catastrophic. With the resulting
hypothetical 10C to 15C fall in temperature, Britain’s climate would change to
that of Newfoundland’s. Agriculture would collapse, and the entire landscape of
the country would be transformed. Housing and infrastructure would have to be
radically adapted to withstand the new climate.
The result would be decades, and possibly generations, of economic hardship.
And as temperatures fell in western Europe, they would rise in west Africa. The
population of Britain would at least survive a collapse in local agriculture,
albeit in straitened and rationed circumstances reminiscent of the second world
war and its aftermath. People in Africa would not.
The result would be an immense increase in the migration and the political
response that is already very visibly driving the decay of liberal democracy in
Europe. Fortunately, such a rapid collapse of Amoc remains, for the moment and
on balance, improbable. It is not a negligible risk, however, and if the
climate crisis continues to gather pace, the chance of it occurring will only
increase with time.
This being so, an observer would expect that the entire external policy of the
UK (and other western European states) would be devoted to fostering
international cooperation and action to limit the climate breakdown and
mitigate its consequences. However, nothing of the sort has occurred, despite
repeated statements that the climate crisis is an “existential” threat. Nor is
anything of the sort to be expected from the new Labour government."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
