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https://theconversation.com/from-mass-deportations-to-huge-tariff-hikes-heres-what-trumps-economic-program-would-do-to-the-us-and-australia-240650>
"It’s time to take Donald Trump seriously. Betting markets say it’s as likely
as not he will be elected US president four weeks from today.
And unlike in 2016 when his program wasn’t clearly defined, he has set out
plainly what he intends to do. Which means it’s possible to model the
consequences.
The three Trump promises with the greatest economic impact are
* the deportation of millions of US residents
* steep restrictions on imports, especially from China
* presidential influence over interest rates.
The best way to model the consequences is with an established model of the kind
used by the International Monetary Fund and central banks around the world
rather than one set up for the purpose that could be seen as designed to favour
or not favour Trump.
The Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics has just
done that, noting that during Trump’s first term as president he “by and large”
did what he said he would do.
It finds
ironically, despite his ‘make the foreigners pay rhetoric’, Trump’s package
of policies does more damage to the US economy than to any other in the
world.
No other country in the world would be hurt by Trump’s program as much as the
US – not even China – although several US allies would suffer, including
Australia, which would be the fourth-worst hit by the most extreme version of
what Trump is proposing."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
