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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/18/climate-crisis-world-temperature-target>
"The internationally agreed goal to keep the world’s temperature rise below
1.5C is now “deader than a doornail”, with 2024 almost certain to be the first
individual year above this threshold, climate scientists have gloomily
concluded – even as world leaders gather for climate talks on how to remain
within this boundary.
Three of the five leading research groups monitoring global temperatures
consider 2024 on track to be at least 1.5C (2.7F) hotter than pre-industrial
times, underlining it as the warmest year on record, beating a mark set just
last year. The past 10 consecutive years have already been the hottest 10 years
ever recorded.
Although a single year above 1.5C does not itself spell climate doom or break
the 2015 Paris agreement, in which countries agreed to strive to keep the
long-term temperature rise below this point, scientists have warned this
aspiration has in effect been snuffed out despite the exhortations of leaders
currently gathered at a United Nations climate summit in Azerbaijan.
“The goal to avoid exceeding 1.5C is deader than a doornail. It’s almost
impossible to avoid at this point because we’ve just waited too long to act,”
said Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe and a research scientist
at Berkeley Earth. “We are speeding past the 1.5C line an accelerating way and
that will continue until global emissions stop climbing.”
Last year was so surprisingly hot, even in the context of the climate crisis,
that it caused “some soul-searching” among climate scientists, Hausfather said.
In recent months there has also been persistent heat despite the fading of El
Niño, a periodic climate event that exacerbated temperatures already elevated
by the burning of fossil fuels.
“It’s going to be the hottest year by an unexpectedly large margin. If it
continues to be this warm it’s a worrying sign,” he said. “Going past 1.5C this
year is very symbolic, and it’s a sign that we are getting ever closer to going
past that target.”
Climate scientists broadly expect it will become apparent the 1.5C target,
agreed upon by governments after pleas from vulnerable island states that they
risk being wiped out if temperatures rise further than this, has been exceeded
within the coming decade.
Despite countries agreeing to shift away from fossil fuels, this year is set to
hit a new record for planet-heating emissions, and even if current national
pledges are met the world is on track for 2.7C (4.8F) warming, risking
disastrous heatwaves, floods, famines and unrest. “We are clearly failing to
bend the curve,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, an analyst at Climate Analytics,
which helped produce the Climate Action Tracker (Cat) temperature estimate."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
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mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
