https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-54508-3
"Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean
ice-free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see
the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple
CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range of the projected first
ice-free day, from 3 years compared to a 2023-equivalent model state to no
ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model
and forcing scenario used. Using a storyline approach, we then focus on the
nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3–6 years, i.e.
potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but
high-impact transition to the first ice-free day. We find that these early
ice-free days all occur during a rapid ice loss event and are associated with
strong winter and spring warming."
Via Susan ****
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
