Australia’s latest brush with extreme heat shows just how good weather forecasting really is

Wed, 8 Jan 2025 22:40:38 +1100

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://theconversation.com/australias-latest-brush-with-extreme-heat-shows-just-how-good-weather-forecasting-really-is-246127>

"As a dome of heat developed over north and central Australia last weekend,
parts of the country braced themselves for their first taste of summer
temperatures well in excess of 40°C. Some areas expected their hottest
temperatures since the Black Summer of 2019–20.

The southeast was on high alert, with searing heat and gusty winds expected,
bringing the threat of extreme fire conditions through South Australia and
Victoria on Monday and into New South Wales on Tuesday. The north and central
parts of Australia were expected to swelter through the week.

But as the furnace drew closer, many people who kept a watchful eye on the
forecast would have noticed something. In some parts of the country, the
forecast bounced around in the lead up to the event.

For example, in the week leading up to the day of extreme heat on Monday, the
forecast for Melbourne flip-flopped between approximately 35°C and 42°C,
settling on 41°C for a couple of days before the event.

So what was it going to be? Just a very warm, but manageable day? Or the kind
of highly unusual heat not experienced for several years?"

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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