<
https://reneweconomy.com.au/peter-duttons-always-on-nuclear-power-is-about-as-reliable-as-wind-and-solar-during-a-renewables-drought/>
"One of Peter Dutton’s key selling points for nuclear power, its “always on”
reliable generation of electricity, has been put to the test in a new analysis,
which found that a fleet of modern nuclear plants is, on balance, about as
reliable as a fleet of wind and solar farms – if those wind and solar farms
were in the midst of a very bad renewable energy drought.
The analysis by David Osmond, a senior wind engineer who runs weekly
simulations of Australia’s main electricity grid, compared outages experienced
by solar and wind during renewables droughts – known as “dunkelflaute” – to
outages in nuclear energy generators.
For the renewable energy side of the equation, Osmond draws on Griffith
University modelling of 42 years of synthetic wind and solar data quantifying
the risk of renewable energy droughts to Australia’s future energy supply.
The nuclear side of the equation is based on Osmond’s own analysis of seven
years of daily nuclear fleet data since 2018 from European countries with four
or more reactors.
Noting there has been more investigation into renewable droughts and the
reliability of solar and wind in Australia than nuclear, Osmond sought to
examine the “worst case scenario” for nuclear – periods with simultaneous
issues with multiple reactors.
Using fleet data grouping outage periods into peak and off-peak months, Osmond
found that during its “worst week” in any month, nuclear experienced a
reduction to 8% to 70% of average output, and 44% to 77% in peak months –
comparable to the “worst week” experienced by renewable energy over the
modelled 42 years.
“Nuclear isn’t 100% reliable,” Osmond writes on BlueSky. “Multiple outages can
occur simultaneously, even during peak demand months.
“Analysis of European nuclear data suggests weekly fleet output during peak
season can drop below 60% of average levels. This is comparable to the effect
of a bad renewable drought on wind+solar generation in Australia.”
Osmond says that when it comes to wind and solar, the data shows “the worst
week for wind and solar is likely to be about 50 percent of the long-term
average” making the two technologies roughly comparable."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
