<
https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-should-hitch-its-solar-wagon-to-the-china-juggernaut/>
"The sandy deserts of the Al Dhafra region in the United Arab Emirates might be
a place you’d like to visit for a four-wheel drive safari or to drink tea at an
oasis. Yet, within 90 square kilometres of this desert, an extraordinary energy
disruption is underway.
Heavy vehicles and workers are shifting sand deep into the Emirati afternoon
and night, preparing for the largest hybrid solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery
energy storage system (BESS) in the world – Masdar’s gargantuan US$6 billion,
5.2GW solar PV and 19GWh BESS project scheduled to become operational in 2027.
This BESS is eleven times the size of NSW’s Waratah Super Battery, currently
the largest operating BESS in the southern hemisphere. Masdar’s will be
operational within two years.
Masdar’s project symbolises a remarkable period in solar and BESS technologies
worldwide. Climate Energy Finance’s new report,
International Solar PV and
BESS Manufacturing Trends, has delved into developments across China, the
European Union, the United States, India, Australia, and the Middle East
through early 2025.
CEF observes continued price deflation in solar PV and batteries – prices
dropped 20% for batteries, and Chinese panels plummeted by 37 to 46% in 2024.
This cost reduction has turbocharged deployment rates, with almost 600GW of
solar PV installed in 2024.
Assuming continued growth in China deployments, 700GW this year seems likely,
and CEF projects this will rise to 1,000GW per annum by 2030. BESS installation
rates are expected to treble in this timeframe. With solar modules and battery
manufacturing capacity at three times the current global installations,
expectations of plateauing installations are entirely unlikely.
Deployment will be accelerated by breakthroughs, including major advances in
perovskite cell technology (on a 5-10 year view), higher battery densities, and
vehicle-to-grid technology.
These technologies are unstoppable in partnership. In 2024, we saw over 30% of
all BESS deployed globally paired with solar PV. The hybrid deployment of BESS
with solar PV maximises both technologies’ utilisation and economic value. It
enables solar PV to discharge in the most profitable time for fossil fuel
generation – night.
Solar PV and BESS hybrid systems are now cost-competitive with fossil gas
generation in Germany and coal-fired generation in India. This trend will
undermine the business case for fossil fuel generation across most markets in
the next ten years."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
