New sentencing laws will drive NZ’s already high imprisonment rates – and budgets – even higher

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 11:53:42 +1100

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://theconversation.com/new-sentencing-laws-will-drive-nzs-already-high-imprisonment-rates-and-budgets-even-higher-253119>

"With the government’s Sentencing (Reform) Amendment Bill about to become law
within days, New Zealand’s already high incarceration rate will almost
certainly climb even higher.

The new legislation essentially limits how much judges can reduce a prison
sentence for mitigating factors (such as a guilty plea, young age or mental
ability). A regulatory impact statement from the Ministry of Justice estimated
it would result in 1,350 more people in prison.

This and other law changes are effectively putting more people in prison for
longer. By 2035, imprisonment numbers are expected to increase by 40% from
their current levels, with significant cost implications. Last year, the
Corrections budget was NZ$1.94 billion, up $150 million from the previous year.

In sheer numbers, the Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will
increase from 9,900 to 11,500 prisoners over the next decade. But Minister of
Corrections Mark Mitchell recently said government policies could see a peak of
13,900 prisoners over that period.

New Zealand’s imprisonment rate is already high at 187 per 100,000 people.
That’s double the rate of Canada (90 per 100,000), and well above Australia
(163 per 100,000) and England (141 per 100,000).

Accounting for imprisonment and population projections, New Zealand’s prisoner
ratio could be between 238 and 263 per 100,000 by 2035. That is higher than the
current imprisonment rate in Iran (228 per 100,000)."

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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