<
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/27/the-fabric-first-trap-decades-of-studies-show-electrification-wins-every-time/>
"In climate and energy policy, certain well-intentioned ideas gain outsized
popularity despite persistent evidence against them. One such appealing but
deeply problematic approach is the “fabric first” philosophy — the notion that
building decarbonization must begin by aggressively insulating and sealing
structures, only later electrifying their heating systems. On the surface, it’s
intuitive: if buildings leak less heat, they need less energy. Yet decades of
research across multiple countries continue to reveal that “fabric first”
consistently delivers far less than promised, saddling property owners and
governments with excessive costs while barely reducing fossil fuel dependency.
I run into this constantly, most recently in discussion on my thesis of natural
gas utilities transitioning to becoming heat-as-a-service utilities with
district heating, geothermal loops and moderate depth geothermal, patterned on
Sinopec’s extraordinary deployments in China. It’s an incredibly persistent and
incorrect theme, so it was worth trotting out the evidence.
Take the United Kingdom, which offers a stark and cautionary tale. In a major
2023 study published by the University of Cambridge, researchers tracked actual
gas consumption across more than 55,000 English homes retrofitted with
insulation over a twelve-year period. The results were sobering: cavity wall
insulation delivered just 7% initial gas savings, which diminished to a
negligible level within four years. Similarly, loft insulation initially saved
around 4% but showed virtually no net reductions after just two years. The
culprit, as ever, was the infamous rebound effect: homeowners, now able to heat
their spaces affordably, naturally sought higher comfort — warmer rooms, longer
heating periods — and even added heated extensions to their properties.
Consequently, by year four, gas consumption had returned entirely to
pre-retrofit levels, wiping out all anticipated energy and carbon benefits.
Yet this was hardly new knowledge. More than a decade earlier, the UK’s Warm
Front program (launched in 2000 and evaluated in depth by researchers such as
Ian Hamilton and colleagues in a 2011 report) documented modest energy savings
alongside notable comfort-taking rebound. Families enjoyed warmer homes but
achieved nowhere near the anticipated gas reductions, despite heavy government
investments. Similarly, a 2017 Welsh government evaluation of the “Arbed”
retrofit program found households did achieve significant immediate gas
reductions of around 37%, but also showed meaningful increases in indoor
temperatures, eroding some expected savings. Clearly, induced demand — people’s
understandable preference for comfort — was systematically underestimated in
modeling and policy alike."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
