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https://theconversation.com/bird-flu-could-be-on-the-cusp-of-transmitting-between-humans-but-there-are-ways-to-slow-down-viral-evolution-250232>
"Disease forecasts are like weather forecasts: We cannot predict the finer
details of a particular outbreak or a particular storm, but we can often
identify when these threats are emerging and prepare accordingly.
The viruses that cause avian influenza are potential threats to global health.
Recent animal outbreaks from a subtype called H5N1 have been especially
troubling to scientists. Although human infections from H5N1 have been
relatively rare, there have been a little more than 900 known cases globally
since 2003 – nearly 50% of these cases have been fatal – a mortality rate about
20 times higher than that of the 1918 flu pandemic. If the worst of these rare
infections ever became common among people, the results could be devastating.
Approaching potential disease threats from an anthropological perspective, my
colleagues and I recently published a book called “Emerging Infections: Three
Epidemiological Transitions from Prehistory to the Present” to examine the ways
human behaviors have shaped the evolution of infectious diseases, beginning
with their first major emergence in the Neolithic period and continuing for
10,000 years to the present day.
Viewed from this deep time perspective, it becomes evident that H5N1 is
displaying a common pattern of stepwise invasion from animal to human
populations. Like many emerging viruses, H5N1 is making incremental
evolutionary changes that could allow it to transmit between people. The
periods between these evolutionary steps present opportunities to slow this
process and possibly avert a global disaster."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
