https://www.thegauntlet.news/p/republicans-new-vaccine-restrictions
"Trump’s FDA has recommended that going forward, COVID-19 vaccines be approved
only for the elderly and so-called “vulnerable”. Those who are “healthy,”
meanwhile, will not qualify for updated shots without new clinical trials to
demonstrate durable efficacy at reducing infections, something that new shots
may not show. Nonetheless, reducing risk of hospitalization and death is
worthwhile- as is reducing the risk of Long COVID, something that those in
power rarely acknowledge.
Complicating matters, the shots we refer to as boosters are in fact updated
shots that reflect ongoing mutations to the virus. Vaccine makers work to match
each fall’s new shots to circulating variants; the closer the strain in the
vaccination to the circulating COVID variant genetically, the more effective it
will be.
Viral mutation is one reason that getting updated shots is important for
everyone who is medically able- not just the “vulnerable”. As COVID continues
to spread far and wide with no containment strategy in place, mutation will
continue to occur. Right now, we’re seeing the new variant NB.1.8.1 take off in
China. Our current vaccines are formulated for the KP.2 variant (in the case of
the mRNA shots) and JN.1 (in the case of Novavax). These strains were both
dominant last summer, with XEC also producing a winter spike. But many people
only received the initial shots, which were formulated for the original,
wild-type strain.
The public largely fails to understand that having had two or three shots back
in 2021 does not make them fully vaccinated. In fact, 2021 COVID vaccines are
doing little to protect them in 2025. The previous vaccine formulas are no
longer authorized; if you wanted to get a 2021 formula vaccine, you couldn’t,
because it’s outdated. You’d get a 2024-2025 formula vaccine, and later this
year, you’d hopefully get a new formula shot.
Along with the genetic mutations the virus has undergone over the past four
years, our vaccines do not produce long-lasting immunity, with significant
waning in efficacy shown after the three-month mark. In 2024, a research team
at Emory University discovered why, finding that the mRNA vaccines “fail to
generate mature and durable antibody-producing cells in the bone marrow.” Their
results were published in
Nature Medicine as reported in
NIH Research
Matters:
The scientists found that they could readily detect long-lived plasma cells
that target tetanus and influenza. In contrast, while shorter-lived
antibody-secreting cells specific to SARS-CoV-2 were abundant, long-lived
ones were mostly absent. Even among five participants who had recent
SARS-CoV-2 infections and vaccinations, long-lived plasma cells against the
virus were scarce in the bone marrow samples.
This study provided an explanation for a phenomenon that had already been
observed in vaccine efficacy data: rapid waning of efficacy with time. Take,
for example, the VISION data looking at efficacy of the updated 2023-2024
monovalent booster, formulated for the XBB strains, collected between September
2023-March 2024. This data found that among immunocompetent adults, the booster
reduced risk of both an ER visit and hospitalization by 50% at 7-60 days after
vaccination. However, by 120-179 days after vaccination, or 4-6 months, risk of
hospitalization was reduced only 25%, and risk of an ER visit was reduced not
at all. Over the course of just a few months, vaccine protection was
significantly lowered- halved, in the case of hospitalization, and wiped out in
the case of needing the ER. For immunocompromised people, the numbers were, of
course, worse; at 60 days, risk of hospitalization was reduced 38%. By 4-6
months, risk of hospitalization was reduced only 14%.
Being honest about both the capabilities and limitations of our current
vaccines is critical for building a functional, holistic COVID response with
science at its heart. If the public had been educated about the inability of
our current vaccines to provide strong, lasting protection across years and
variants, that would increase demand for additional interventions like clean
air, sick leave, testing, and masks, as well as for research funding for next
generation vaccines. It would also have increased demand for “booster” shots,
rather than driving demand down. However, both parties have pushed the
narrative that the pandemic is “over”, that COVID became “mild” during Omicron
wave 1, and that the initial vaccine rollout “ended” the threat.
Now, Republicans are using the public’s complacency to push the few tools we
have left out of reach. In fact, in FDA Commissioner Marty Makary and Center
for Biologics Evaluation and Research Director Vinay Prasad’s NEJM piece
arguing for the restriction of vaccines, they specifically call out Americans’
reluctance to get boosted as part of their justification for limiting access,
noting, “Less than 25% of Americans received boosters each year, ranging from
less than 10% of children younger than 12 years of age in the 2024–2025 season
to 50% of adults over 75 years old”. Would this abject failure to boost the
country have occurred if the public had been informed that their vaccines were
waning significantly by the 4-6 month mark? That immunocompromised people’s
protection from hospitalization at month 6 was 14%? That new variants require
new vaccines?"
Via Violet Blue’s
Threat Model - Covid: May 29, 2025
https://www.patreon.com/posts/covid-may-29-130160699
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
