<
https://reneweconomy.com.au/as-coal-crumbles-failure-to-pivot-to-green-iron-risks-halving-australian-export-revenues/>
"The latest data from the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), out this week,
forecasts that Australia’s resource and energy export revenues will decline by
$33 billion in 2026-27, compared to 2024-25.
The projected deflation of Australia’s export earnings is a lens to threats to
our future economic resilience and security, while our key trading partners
accelerate their economic decarbonisation and deliver on their Paris Agreement
commitments.
It is a stark reminder of the need to increase our economic complexity, to
diversify from fossil fuels, which face inevitable structural decline, and to
prioritise value adding our resources. The projections underscore the strategic
importance, for example, to pivot to green iron production rather than shipping
rocks of ore.
The projected decline is driven primarily by a 17% drop in iron ore revenues
from $116 billion to $97 billion and a 20% drop in LNG from $67 billion to $53
billion over this period.
From 2022-23, where Australia’s energy exports spiked due to Russian
sanctions, LNG revenues are forecast to fall 42% to 2026-27, whereas iron ore
revenues are expected to drop 22%.
Thermal coal, meanwhile, is forecast to drop by more than 60% from highs of $66
billion in 2022-23 to $26 billion in 2026-27. Metallurgical coal revenues are
forecast to fall around 34% from highs in 2022-23 to $42 billion in 2026-27.
In our recent
Green Metal Statecraft report, we stressed the opportunities
that emerge from an accelerated global transition. Australia should be
leveraging our comparative advantages in renewable energy to process our
commodities onshore, embodying decarbonisation to value-add our exports and
scale-up a green commodities industry here."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
