COVID-19 Deaths the Key Driver for 2024 Excess Mortality to November

Sun, 13 Jul 2025 04:05:37 +1000

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://www.actuaries.asn.au/research-analysis/covid-19-deaths-the-key-driver-for-2024-excess-mortality-to-november>

"In summary:

* For the first 11 months of 2024, against a baseline that includes anticipated
COVID-19 deaths, total mortality was 1% higher than predicted, which is just
within the 95% confidence interval.
* The statistically significant outcomes that contributed to this result are:
  - COVID-19 mortality was 69% higher than predicted, about the same as in
2023, rather than reducing as we predicted;
  - all other respiratory deaths were 7% higher than predicted; and
  - cancer mortality was 2% lower than predicted.
* There have been five deaths from COVID-19 for every death from influenza."

Via Violet Blue’s Threat Model - Covid: July 10, 2025
https://www.patreon.com/posts/covid-july-10-133804773

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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