<
https://reneweconomy.com.au/why-electrification-must-be-at-the-heart-of-australias-building-plan/>
"Australia’s building sector has long been recognised as both a challenge and
an opportunity in the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Homes and commercial properties are responsible for a large share of the
country’s energy use and emissions, both from the electricity and gas that run
them and from the carbon embedded in their concrete, steel and insulation.
Many of Australia’s homes remain some of the least efficient in the developed
world, often cold in winter, hot in summer, and powered by fossil gas.
The government’s updated Trajectory for Low Energy Buildings, released in
August 2025, signals a significant shift in policy and a broader understanding
of how to align buildings with the net zero target by 2050.
The first version of the Trajectory, agreed in 2019, was built around a “fabric
first” mindset. Its goal was to make new buildings “zero energy and carbon
ready” by 2050. The way to get there was by tightening National Construction
Code requirements for insulation, glazing and airtightness and by pushing
thermal performance higher over time.
New residential standards were stepped up in NCC 2022, moving from 6-Star to
7-Star energy ratings, with a “whole-of-home” energy budget layered in. An
addendum later that year extended the focus to existing homes and offices,
recommending training, information, energy performance disclosure for buyers
and renters, and minimum standards for rentals.
The 2019 plan assumed that efficiency had to come first, while electrification
of heating, cooking and hot water was only vaguely acknowledged as part of a
“zero carbon ready” outcome.
That strategy made sense on paper but it underestimated the limits of
efficiency as a climate tool. International evidence has shown again and again
that insulation and sealing often deliver smaller reductions than expected.
In the United Kingdom’s Warm Front program, low income households who received
insulation upgrades did not reduce gas use over time. Instead they chose to
live in warmer conditions. Germany spent hundreds of billions of euros on
retrofits over two decades with no net fall in gas demand for heating.
A major US study found retrofit savings at less than half the modeled level.
France saw insulation upgrades cut emissions by less than 20%, while replacing
fossil heating with clean electric alternatives cut them by more than 80%.
Rebound effects and comfort gains eroded the emissions payoff of efficiency
when it was not paired with fuel switching.
The 2025 update responds to this experience. It keeps efficiency improvements
as a core element but broadens the frame. It makes fuel switching to
electricity explicit. It recognizes that shifting demand in time is as
important as cutting total demand. It adds embodied carbon in materials to the
agenda.
It points to the need for climate resilience in buildings so that they can keep
people safe in extreme heat and flooding. It emphasizes equity through green
finance and fair access. It also singles out refrigerant emissions from heat
pumps and cooling systems as an area to manage carefully. Where the 2019
strategy was narrowly focused on fabric, the 2025 strategy reflects a wider
systems perspective."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
