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https://theconversation.com/russias-permanent-test-is-pushing-europe-to-the-brink-of-war-heres-what-moscow-actually-wants-266826>
"The scenes have become grimly familiar: Russian tanks rolling into Georgia in
2008, the seizure of Crimea in 2014, the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian
military jets violating European airspace, and now mysterious drone sightings
closing airports across Europe.
While these may seem like disconnected events, in reality they are but chapters
in a singular, focused and evolving strategy. Russia’s aim is to wield military
power when necessary, engage in “grey-zone” war tactics when possible, and
exert political pressure everywhere. Moscow has been doing all this for
decades, with one objective in mind: to redraw Europe’s security map without
triggering direct war with Nato.
This goal is neither improvised nor ambiguous, and at its core, it is
irredentist – it seeks to reverse Nato’s post-Cold War expansion, and reassert
a Russian sphere of influence in Europe.
This singular focus was what governed Russia’s actions in the runup to its
invasion of Ukraine. In December 2021, Moscow demanded that Nato bar Ukraine
and Georgia from joining the alliance, and that Nato forces withdraw to their
May 1997 positions, where they were before any former Soviet states in East
Europe joined Nato.
This was not a diplomatic opening gambit to the February 2022 ground invasion,
but an objective in and of itself. From the Kremlin’s perspective, Nato’s
enlargement is both a humiliation and an existential threat, and must be curbed
at all costs."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
