<
https://theconversation.com/russia-now-has-a-strategy-for-a-permanent-state-of-hybrid-war-266936>
"Drone incursions into Poland, fighter jets in Nato airspace, election
interference in Romania and Moldova and “little green men” (soldiers of
unconfirmed origin) in Estonia. These are just a few examples of the tactics
Russia has been using in the past few weeks.
They appear to be part of a much broader strategy variously referred to as the
“Gerasimov doctrine”, non-linear war or new-generation warfare. What lies
behind these terms is the very worrying and very real “weaponisation of
everything” – Moscow’s strategy to reshape international order.
As a researcher on great-power rivalries in Eurasia, I’ve observed this kind of
hybrid warfare long before the full-scale invasion in Ukraine. We saw it most
obviously with Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections. But
it has intensified since the Ukraine conflict began in 2022.
These tactics cover a broad spectrum. They range from information operations,
including propaganda and disinformation campaigns, to attacks on critical
infrastructure, such as undersea cables. They involve the use of drones to
disrupt air traffic and malicious cyber-attacks against Russia’s enemies. They
have also included assassination campaigns against defectors and dissidents in
the UK and elsewhere.
Russia is struggling to retain its traditional influence in post-Soviet regions
like the south Caucasus and central Asia. Meanwhile it has also sought to
extend its influence elsewhere, such as in Latin America or Africa.
But the main focus of the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare is Europe. The continent has
become a key battleground in Moscow’s attempts to restore Russia to its
erstwhile great-power status and reclaim a Soviet-style sphere of influence.
At the heart of these efforts is the war against Ukraine. For Russia, victory
there is more than the mere military defeat of Ukraine and the permanent
weakening of the country along the lines of Moscow’s frequently stated war
aims: annexation of one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, limits on the country’s
armed forces and no prospect of Nato membership.
While clearly important for Putin, he needs Russia’s victory to signal the
extent of his power and at the same time to highlight western impotence to
prevent Ukraine’s defeat."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
